Despite the US-triggered trade war, China’s economic prospects remain in line with 2019 expectations and are likely to continue in 2020 thanks to deleveraging and structural reforms. A year ago, I predicted that China could achieve 6.2 percent GDP growth in 2019 if policymakers sustained higher-quality growth while reducing debt accumulation. This scenario has proven pretty valid so far.
Recent international headlines have projected “sub-6 percent growth” in 2020 for China, assuming weakened consumption, cautious private investment and shrinking exports. In reality, China’s slowing growth is in line with long-term expectations. Even half a decade ago, the International Monetary Fund said China’s annual growth would be 6.1-6.2 percent by 2020. The minor deviation can be attributed to the trade war.
In 2020, the final figure may likely be 5.8-6 percent, though.
